Westminster is currently obsessed with Makerfield and the political future of Andy Burnham. Yet a massive constitutional shift is brewing north of the border. Voters in Scotland are heading to the polls right now for critical Westminster by-elections, and the fallout will shake both Downing Street and Holyrood.
This isn't just local local political drama. It's a high-stakes battleground. The votes in Aberdeen South and Arbroath & Broughty Ferry were triggered because heavyweight MPs like Stephen Flynn and Stephen Gethins packed their bags for the Scottish Parliament last month. Flynn didn't just move; he walked straight into the Holyrood cabinet as economy secretary. Now, the empty seats they left behind in London have turned into a ferocious proxy war over the entire future of the UK energy sector.
The Massive Fight Over North Sea Oil
If you want to understand why these specific votes matter, look at Aberdeen South. The Scottish Conservatives have spent weeks hammering a single message. They want this vote to be a direct referendum on oil and gas.
For a long time, the decline of the North Sea oil industry has weighed heavily on Aberdeen. The city has been battered by job losses. Roughly 1,000 positions a month have been hollowed out as national policies shift toward renewables. The Tories see an opening here. National leader Kemi Badenoch has been making frequent trips up north, desperate to prove that her party can stand up against Keir Starmer's energy policies. A Conservative win here would send a massive shockwave to London.
But they aren't the only ones trying to capture that anger. Reform UK is running hard in Aberdeen South with candidate Jo Hart. They are aggressively pushing a full-throated message to drill more domestic oil, pouring thousands into local social media ads presented by deputy leader Richard Tice.
The SNP Big Shift
The Scottish National Party finds itself in a strange position. Historically, they balanced the pro-oil needs of the north-east against the green-leaning voters in the central belt. But the ground has shifted. Following the end of their coalition with the Scottish Greens and the recent international energy disruptions caused by the Iran crisis, the SNP has moved back toward supporting domestic fossil fuels.
SNP candidate Richard Thomson, a former north-east MP, has been open about this internal tug-of-war. He noted that he and Flynn actively pulled the party back toward a more positive stance on oil and gas. They want to show local workers they aren't being abandoned.
This leaves the Scottish Greens as the only major party fully defending a rapid shift away from fossil fuels. Green candidate Jorg Shelton-Eckstein knows winning the seat is a long shot, but the campaign gives them a huge platform to push the SNP minority government at Holyrood further on green policies, like expanding free bus travel.
What This Means For Starmer
For Scottish Labour, these by-elections are a massive test of stamina. They had a tough night during the recent Scottish Parliament elections, watching Reform UK surge to tie them for seats. Now, local organizers are scrambling. The party had to rush out candidate selections via Zoom hustings just to get boots on the ground in time.
The political reality is clear. Voters are exhausted by constant campaigns, but the outcome of these votes will dictate how much resistance the UK government faces on its net-zero timeline. If the SNP holds these seats, John Swinney gets a mandate to keep pushing his newly passed independence referendum motion. If the Tories or Reform break through, Starmer will have to completely rethink his approach to the Scottish industrial heartlands.
Pay close attention to the numbers coming out of the north-east. The real story isn't who sits in Westminster next week. It's whether the workers who keep Scotland's lights on have finally run out of patience with the status quo.
If you live in Aberdeen South or Arbroath & Broughty Ferry, get to your local polling station before 10 PM. Check your polling card for your specific venue, make sure you bring a valid form of photo ID—like a passport or driving license—and cast your ballot. The future of the local economy is genuinely on the line.
